Wait a sec: this is a HOCKEY blog! Why are we talking SOCCER? Fair question.
Even amidst a thrilling Stanley Cup final, Globalpuck can not ignore the deafening buzz from Sao Paulo to Berlin, Liverpool to Johannesburg. No matter which language you speak or which continent you call home, the 2010 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament will serve as a vehicle for connecting with the global community through the universal language of sport. Yet, for the critical mass of casual North America sports fans, soccer/football/futbol is a strange and foreign entity. It appears disorganized, chaotic, slow and ‘boring’. No excessive scoring + no hitting = no chance in the US. Alas, the valley girl battle cry: “I don’t GET it…”
And it seems that the average North American sports fan is the proverbial valley girl of the world stage. We DON’T get it (and we’re just about the only ones!)
In an effort to make greater sense of sport, many analytically-minded North Americans have taken to the spreadsheets in recent years for new insights. Given the topical nature of sports statistics in our information society (i.e. “Moneyball”, Fantasy Sports, Sabremetrics), the culture of data analysis certainly makes for a valuable contribution to the larger on-going discussion.
Soccer is…well…different. The game is characterized less by individual performances and more by largely unquantifiable collective efforts. But for North American hockey fans in particular, soccer does resemble a ’sister sport’: its played in zones, with defensive imperatives, and possession is critical. Some have gone as far to say that hockey is ’soccer on ice’. Beyond the easily quantifiable stats of goals, assists, penalty minutes or minutes played, perhaps the most telling hockey statistic for any player is his plus/minus rating (+/-). It begins to tell, as much as statistical analysis alone can quantify, how accountable a player is in all phases of the game. Is he is strong in all three zones? Not a defensive liability? Despite all of these ostensible similarities to hockey’s game play, soccer doesn’t have any similar statistics to assess a player’s overall performance (though some soccer fans may cite Castrol ratings). For the data-crazed, stat-obsessed American fan who loves crunching batting averages and completion percentages, this presents an analytical roadblock. Many are left utterly confounded and deeply frustrated.
However, the discussion of data in the world of futbol certainly is en vogue at the moment. Though we still lack truly insightful soccer statistics for individual players, economist Simon Kuper has cited three main predictors for international teams’ likelihood of success in his acclaimed best seller “Soccernomics“: a nation’s population size, resources (GDP) and experience in international competition. Over large samples of data in the long term, his model is said to have some degree of success in the predictability of soccer match outcomes.
Similarly, many analytics software companies are riding this new wave of popularity in sports data by offering predictive analytics applications. The Spotfire World Cup app leans on 80 years worth of international soccer data and it’s stat engine has predicted a 2010 final of France vs. Germany (with Germany taking home the crown).
Whether or not soccer will be fully embraced by stat hungry, info-holic Americans this summer still remains to be seen. Yet, one thing is for certain: the rest of the world will be watching with great fervor. Perhaps we should just put down the laptops, forget the numbers, and join them?
Cheers! -Globalpuck
