The Eastern Conference Bell Curve

Now past the NHL season’s midpoint, the Eastern Conference standings look as though someone hit SHUFFLE on their iPod. Nobody expected Montreal to look so average after finishing #1 last season. Pittsburgh has had it’s share of difficult injuries to endure, while Ottawa has fallen off the face of the earth. Boston and New Jersey have ridden good team systems and positional depth to strong records, while some teams are lacking an identity all together (see New York Rangers).

The talent distribution seems to follow a classic bell curve model: few elites, few poor teams, and MANY average teams. Though the middle cusp teams have the potential to win on any given night, they’ve been plagued with inconsistent efforts, producing two and three game spurts of hot and cold streaks. The top teams have a high probability of beating any opponent, while bottom teams are more likely to lose. In short, Boston has a great chance of beating Atlanta while Montreal has around a 60% chance of beating Carolina.

Top: Boston, New Jersey

Above Average: Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, New York (R), Montreal, Pittsburgh

Below Average: Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Ottawa

Bottom: Atlanta, New York (I)

BOLD = denotes top 8, playoff bound