Even amidst a thrilling Stanley Cup final, Globalpuck can not ignore the deafening buzz from Sao Paulo to Berlin, Liverpool to Johannesburg.  No matter which language you speak or which continent you call home, the 2010 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament will serve as a vehicle for connecting with the global community through the universal language of sport.  Yet, for the critical mass of casual North America sports fans, soccer/football/futbol is a strange and foreign entity.  It appears disorganized, chaotic, slow and ‘boring’.  No excessive scoring + no hitting = no chance in the US.  Alas, the valley girl battle cry: “I don’t GET it…”

And it seems that the average North American sports fan is the proverbial valley girl of the world stage. We DON’T get it (and we’re just about the only ones!)

In an effort to make greater sense of sport, many analytically-minded North Americans have taken to the spreadsheets in recent years for new insights.  Given the topical nature of sports statistics in our information society (i.e. “Moneyball”, Fantasy Sports, Sabremetrics), the culture of data analysis certainly makes for a valuable contribution to the larger on-going discussion.

Soccer is…well…different.  The game is characterized less by individual performances and more by largely unquantifiable collective efforts.  But for North American hockey fans in particular, soccer does resemble a ’sister sport’: its played in zones, with defensive imperatives, and possession is critical.  Some have gone as far to say that hockey is ’soccer on ice’.  Beyond the easily quantifiable stats of goals, assists, penalty minutes or minutes played, perhaps the most telling hockey statistic for any player is his plus/minus rating (+/-).  It begins to tell, as much as statistical analysis alone can quantify, how accountable a player is in all phases of the game.  Is he is strong in all three zones? Not a defensive liability?  Despite all of these ostensible similarities to hockey’s game play, soccer doesn’t have any similar statistics to assess a player’s overall performance (though some soccer fans may cite Castrol ratings).  For the data-crazed, stat-obsessed American fan who loves crunching batting averages and completion percentages, this presents an analytical roadblock. Many are left utterly confounded and deeply frustrated.

However, the discussion of data in the world of futbol certainly is en vogue at the moment.  Though we still lack truly insightful soccer statistics for individual players, economist Simon Kuper has cited three main predictors for international teams’ likelihood of success in his acclaimed best seller “Soccernomics“: a nation’s population size, resources (GDP) and experience in international competition.  Over large samples of data in the long term, his model is said to have some degree of success in the predictability of soccer match outcomes.

Similarly, many analytics software companies are riding this new wave of popularity in sports data by offering predictive analytics applications.  The Spotfire World Cup app leans on 80 years worth of international soccer data and it’s stat engine has predicted a 2010 final of France vs. Germany (with Germany taking home the crown).

Whether or not soccer will be fully embraced by stat hungry, info-holic Americans this summer still remains to be seen. Yet, one thing is for certain: the rest of the world will be watching with great fervor.  Perhaps we should just put down the laptops, forget the numbers, and join them?

Cheers!  -Globalpuck

Three days after Fenway Park’s 2010 Winter Classic, the extremely classy and gracious 1980 US Olympians Jim Craig and Mike Eruzione visited New England’s famed green jewel to particpate in a private Q&A session sponsored by Dunkin Donuts. Topics ranged from reflections on Lake Placid to discussions of modern day organized youth sports. In between sharing stories from their BU careers and offering candid anecdotes on teammates, both Craig and Eruzione were completely forthright on their positions regarding NHL players participation in the Winter Games.

They don’t belong there.

Eruzione feels that the quality of the “team game” is compromised when players aren’t afforded the chance to practice together for more than three days. The Winthrop, MA native qualified his position when he said: don’t get me wrong, “these can flat out play.” Yet, Captain “Rizo” would rather see Olympians practice together for at least one month before competing. Throughout 1979, the “Miracle” team practiced and toured together for several months leading up to Lake Placid. When asked about his team’s source of inspiration before the Soviet match-up, Eruzione said: “…we played for each other.”

1980 Miracle on Ice | Jim Craig

Listening to the hardline positions of both local legends, one notes an undeniably poignant channeled spirit interwoven in their words. The spirit of a man responsible for molding them. Simply put: without coach Herb Brooks, there wouldn’t have been any “miracle” to speak of. Brooks didn’t look to select only the “best” players for his roster as much as the “right” ones. Quality YOUNG MEN.

YOUNG MEN: with the integrity of a Jim Craig, who is attributed with the following quote in Wayne Coffey’s Boys of Winter:

“It’s impossible for me to separate the miracle that we achieved as a team with the memories and gratitude I have for all the people who helped me get there, from my mother and father, my sisters and brothers, coaches, friends and teammates. You don’t make a journey like that alone…”

YOUNG MEN: who’s pride in wearing the red, white, and blue is exceeded only by a nation’s pride in them.

YOUNG MEN: with the hearts of lions and the spirit of warriors.

YOUNG MEN: who grew up in blue collar families in places like Minnesota’s Iron Range, where people know the value of hard work and the true value of a dollar.

Simply: YOUNG MEN. NOT those earning millions.

At first glance, Group A looks as though it was constructed solely to ensure favorable North American TV ratings!  As with the recently concluded World Junior Championships, home nation favorite Canada and USA should advance to the medal rounds with 3-0/2-1 records after trouncing weak sisters Norway and Switzerland.  How convenient for NBC and its sponsors!

Group B boasts the trendy gold medal favorite in star-studded Russia. Though the defending World Champions count four of the world’s top scoring talents (Ovechkin, Malkin, Datsyuk, Kovalchuk) among their top 6 forwards, the Russian program still has to prove that it’s premier talents can gel and work together to achieve a common goal.  With a little luck, either rival nation of Slovakia or the Czech Republic could emerge undefeated from Group B.  ANYTHING can happen in a short tournament with inadequate preparation time (anything EXCEPT Latvia winning Group B, of course).  For all we know, Tomas Vokoun could get hot and just might steal the show in Vancouver.

Gold and silver medalists from 2006, Sweden and Finland headline Group C ahead of Germany and the ‘02 Cinderella darlings of Belarus.  A mixed bag of wild cards here; tons of European parity.  ANY team could go undefeated.  Some streaky “lightning in a bottle” goaltending could create an unlikely medal contender (lookin’ RIGHT at you, Miikka Kiprusoff).  Think Group C is full of medal pretenders?  Think again.  Since 1976, there have only been two Olympiads (count ‘em TWO) in which either Sweden or Finland failed to medal.  Food for thought…

So, as they ask at the track: “who do ya’ like?”  Follow the Twitter hashtag #medals2010 and weigh in with your prediction for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medalists.  If you’re correct,  you’ll have a chance to win a FREE Team Russia Alex Ovechkin Prize Pack including #8’s 2004 Rookie Card (see below)!  Also, be sure to follow the hashtag #van2010 on Twitter for daily coverage of Vancouver’s 2010 Winter Olympics!  It all starts on February 12th!

Top 12 Roster Selections for Sweden:

1. N. Lidstrom - D, Detroit

2. H. Zetterberg - C, Detroit

3. H. Lundqvist - G, New York (R)

4. D. Alfredsson - RW, Ottawa

5. P. Forsberg - C, Modo (SWE)

6. D. Sedin - LW, Vancouver

7. H. Sedin - C, Vancouver

8. M. Ohlund - D, Tampa Bay

9.  L. Eriksson - RW, Dallas

10. N. Backstrom - C, Washington

11. N. Kronwall - D, Detroit

12. T. Holmstrom - RW, Detroit

Leetch : Simply put, Leetch must be counted among the top four skating defensemen to ever lace ‘em up (Orr, Lidstrom, Bourque - not bad company). The 1994 Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Brian got the Blueshirts on the board with an electric goal against the Canucks early in Game 7. For those who remember, the ‘94 Cup final was arguably the most passionate playoff series ever played. E-V-E-R.

Yzerman : “Stevie Y” scored the most amazing goal against the St. Louis Blues in a mid-90’s playoff game. Of the many thankless things he did night in and night out to make him one of the great leaders to ever play, this is the most memorable. It’s STILL the best shot I’ve ever seen.

Robitaille : Not to take anything away from this him, but candidly speaking it’s virtually impossible to mention this guy’s name without INSTANTLY thinking of Wayne Gretzky. Luc could put the puck in the net (he did it around 700 times), but also he rode shutgun for “The Great One” in his prime.

Hull : I’m pretty sure Hull himself would tell you that he wishes more of the goals he scored were of the playoff variety. But, he did score one pretty important goal (albeit controversial) on Hasek in 1999.

And an honorbale mention to Lou Lamoriello as well; an exceptional architect. The former Providence College visionary is one of the greatest organizational builders to ever hold a GM seat. Bar none.

Game 7.

I’ve gained such an appreciation for Detroit’s Swedes over the past few seasons. Nick Lidstrom plays one of the toughest positions in sports so effortlessly, and Henrik Zetterberg conjures memories of my favorite player ever, and perhaps his very own boyhood idol, Peter Forsberg (sorry Wings fans, but he was THE best and you know that’s why you loved to hate him!). In Sweden, there is one way to play hockey: completely. Accountable on both ends of the ice, to your team, to yourself. The reigning gold medalists and Cup champions have mastered it, and that serves as a standard for excellence not only on the ice, but in life.

You must respect those who continually raise the bar. The Red Wings team unit, consisting of the ‘Tre Kronor’ core plus ageless vets Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby, execute their game almost flawlessly. “Know your role and shut your mouth.” That makes for GREAT teams when each man sacrifices the ‘me’ for the ‘we’.

Bravo, Red Wings. You honor the greatest team game in the world by competing selflessly, every shift, every night, to near perfection. Win or lose, you are champions.

You know they’re going to “leave it all on the ice”…

The reigning Stanley Cup Champion Detriot Red Wings are on a collision course with the Vancouver Canucks in the NHL’s Western Conference. This should come as no surprise to fans of international hockey.

Team Sweden runs the most effective system in the entire world of hockey. Predicated on puck possession, speed, and defensive discipline, “Tre Kronor” perfected their style of play in the early 1970’s while competing against the dominant Soviet Red Army empire. Even today, Sweden remains a force on the international scene having won the most recent Olympic gold at Torino in 2006.

Many critics feel that the “European style” of hockey doesn’t translate to the more physical North American NHL game. Yet, it has become increasingly difficult to mount a convincing argument against the merits of the Swedish hockey system in tournament play. Just look west to see who’s still standing as we approach the Western Conference final: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom, Mikael Samuelsson, Tomas Holmstrom, Niklas Kronwall, Johnathon Ericsson, Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler, Mathias Ohlund, and Mats Sundin (just to name a few!)

Most of these men will continue playing hockey well into June, when Sweden experiences it’s brightest days. Careful not to stare too hard at all of those gold medals or Stanley Cup rings on the summer solstice. The glare may hurt your eyes!

Check out Swedish hockey legend Peter Forsberg’s dazzling shootout goal in the ‘94 Olympics!

Here are two ‘out of the box’ theories on playoff hockey to consider this spring:

Historically, thin air in cities with high altitudes (Calgary, Denver) gives the home team a competitive advantage in a 7 game series.

You might think this is a pile of bull, but here’s a quick story. A friend of mine played NCAA hockey in the East, and one season he went to Colorado Springs for a road game at Air Force. The teams were equally conditioned and talented, and played tight first and second periods. Though the third period began with a tie score, the boys from the East were completely out of gas in the final 20 and Air Force put 5 goals on the board. It wasn’t a case of having better legs; Air Force was just used to training and playing in their environment and their opponents were not. Former University of Maine coach Shawn Walsh (God rest his soul) even purchased a specially formulated bottled water with additional oxygen components for his players whenever the Black Bears traveled to the Rocky Mountain region. So, if the home team is highly competitive and skilled to begin with (Calgary ‘89, Colorado ‘96, Colorado ‘01) and has home ice advantage in a 7-game series, it is fair to assume that those teams hold a competitive edge over their opponents.

Aggressive, up-tempo teams wearing red jerseys can not be denied championships.

This too may seem like a stretch and something your mom might say, but consider these teams: the Soviet Union dynasty, the Montreal Canadiens in the 50’s and 70’s, the ‘06 Carolina Hurricanes, and the countless Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils squads of recent decades. It is a proven psychological fact that the color red establishes dominance and inspires fear in competitive situations. Think Tiger Woods on Sunday. Sure, it helps to be the the best golfer in the world. It also helps to have a team with Martin Brodeur, Ken Dryden, or Dominik Hasek. But when a formidable team wearing red is in a position to win a championship, that team is rarely denied*.

(*Exceptions include the 1980 Soviets and the ‘01 Devils. But what beat the latter? THIN AIR!)

Following this model, my 2009 Stanley Cup Finals prediction: Calgary vs. New Jersey

(editors note:  so after the first round results, the joke is on me.  But look at the teams that beat the Flames and Devils….ALSO red jerseys!)

With the National Hockey League playoff picture rounding into form, speculation has begun on which players will be available to suit up for Team Canada at the 2009 IIHF World Championships in Switzerland. Many Canadian hockey superstars like Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Loius, Jay Bouwmeester, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley currently sit outside of NHL playoff contention. However, these big name Team Canada 2010 hopefuls are unlikely to wear the national team jersey in April. The following youngsters are the odds on favorites for Team Canada’s roster:

Kyle Turris

Drew Doughty

Brent Burns

Corey Perry

Ryan Getzlaf

Brad Boyes

Steven Stamkos

Pascal Leclaire

Jason Pominville

Luke Schenn

Bryan Little

John Tavares

Along with it’s notoriously sharp windchills, March also brought plummeting dollar values to the US and Canada. We saw NHL General Managers act conservatively with their assets at the trading deadline amid the current downward spiral. Just last week at the GM meetings in Florida, many hockey executives offered a grim forecast well into the 2010-11 season.

Owners and executives will start to feel the effects of the current recession in 2009-10, while Toronto GM Brian Burke and others anticipate the real financial challenges will begin for clubs in the fall of 2010. Trades became more difficult at this month’s deadline due to GMs reluctance to take on expensive existing contracts that extend beyond next season. In short, nobody knows what the future will bring, but NHL clubs are preparing for the worst.

Hockey players worldwide have resided themselves to declining wages in the next two seasons. Only a handful of premier talents like Alex Ovechkin, Henrik Zetterberg, Vincent Lecavalier, Rick DiPietro, and Evgeni Malkin have long term financial security with sustained value in multi-year contracts. Most affordable veterans will find themselves priced out of their next contract by inexpensive young rookies in the coming years as GMs play limbo with the ever-declining salary cap. “How low can you go?!” Detroit Red Wings ace GM Ken Holland has gone on record as saying that he anticipates losing several players.

Canada's Jonathan Toews will be an NHL bargain until 2010.

Boston GM Peter Chiarelli chose wisely in not casting off his young talented forwards for a costly hired gun like Chris Pronger. The real commodity in the world of hockey right now is young, inexpensive production. Players like Steve Mason, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom and David Krejci earn less than $1 million per season on an entry level deal for their first three seasons. It remains to be seen what these emerging stars will be worth in another 5 years given the current state of the world economy and the NHL.